Polling numbers since Biden left the presidential race are not a reflection of infatuation with the sitting vice president but just the energy that comes when a campaign that thought it had no chance finds new life, Scott Rasmussen said on Washington Watch Monday.
The polling numbers his RMG Research group is seeing right now show a nation that remains closely divided.
“The numbers we’re seeing today are almost identical to the polling numbers we saw on June 26 – right before Joe Biden had that disastrous debate,” Rasmussen told show host Tony Perkins. “What that means is the popular vote is maybe a toss-up, maybe Trump ahead by a point or two. That means he’s got the advantage in the key swing states.”
Analysis of battleground states by The Hill finds Trump leading in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, but never by large margins. In some individual states, there’s been no new polling since Harris’ ascent to presumptive Democratic nominee.
A Wall Street Journal poll released Friday showed that Harris has effectively drawn even in the battleground states.
Democratic strategists are now ready to crown Kamala, The Hill reported, but others aren't so sure.
David Axelrod, President Barack Obama's chief strategist, Trump is still a “pretty substantial favorite” over Harris. James Carville, who helped President Bill Clinton, cautions that excitement around Harris should be tempered with “realism.”
In his interview, Rasmussen broke down the Harris polling boost in a way that many on both sides of the aisle will understand.
“With Biden as the Democratic nominee, the Democrats were coming to bat in the bottom of the ninth down by six or seven runs. With Harris as the nominee, they’re coming to bat still down, but only by a run or two. So, it's possible to see a path forward, but it's not really a new race at this point,” he said.
Voter turnout is key in any election, and both sides are talking about issues that will motivate their base, Rasmussen said.
Who can get out the vote?
For Harris, that means continuing her role as a pro-abortion voice.
In September of 2022, less than three months after the Supreme Court’s decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health overturned Roe v. Wade, Harris spoke on the CBS News program “Face the Nation,” calling for Roe v. Wade to become law.
This month alone, Harris has championed the need for “reproductive rights” at campaign stops in Wisconsin, Georgia and Indiana.
Along the way she vilifies Trump as an “absolute radical” bent on restricting the rights of women.
Trump has said the U.S. Supreme Court got it right when it returned control of abortion to the states. Despite the claims of his opponent, Trump has not promoted a national ban on abortion.
Pro-life movement after Roe
Rasmussen said Republicans need to work on their messaging on the life issue.
“The challenge for the life movement is that for 50 years, the objective was very clear, and that was to overturn Roe v. Wade. Now that's happened, and the movement is still struggling a little bit to find its footing.”
Voters make it very difficult to thread the needle on abortion as a campaign issue.
“We live in a nation where overwhelmingly voters say it'd be better if we have fewer abortions. At the same time, they're really uncomfortable with restrictions on the right of a woman to choose. The movement needs to find a better way to address that issue,” Rasmussen said.
Top issues: Inflation, immigration
While the Democrats lean into the abortion issue, Republicans score well on what the numbers say are the three most important issues in the campaign.
“Voters tell us the top issue is inflation. The second-most important issue is other economic concerns, and No. 3 on the list is immigration. On all of those issues, President Trump is trusted far more than Vice President Harris is today.”
But Rasmussen urges caution.
“Let's see what happens over the next couple of weeks as voters get to know Vice President Harris a little more,” he said.
Many Republicans feel voters’ getting to know Harris – and her history of far-left ideology – will work in Trump’s favor.
“There was a newspaper headline in The New York Times saying that some of her past policy positions may not help her in this year's campaign. That was one of the great understatements,” Rasmussen said.
Rasmussen says it’s a “mistake” to believe at this point that Harris has “gained a lot of momentum or reshaped the race.”
But the fresh face factor is something that has to be considered.
The middle is small and has to go somewhere
“The reality is Donald Trump brings out people who don’t regularly vote, and the more people get to know Vice President Harris, the more enthusiastic they will be about voting. There were people who vote almost all the time who were telling us a month ago they didn’t want to vote in a Trump-Biden rematch. They were unhappy with both sides. We’re going to look and see how those people shift,” Rasmussen said.
For now, it’s anybody’s ballgame.
“I do think the Republicans have the edge at this point, but with a hundred days to go, it’s far from over,” Rasmussen said.
