Those elections will be impacted by the redrawing of congressional district maps in several states. Based on historical voting patterns, the process could favor different parties in different states.
Redrawing of districts happens every ten years after the completion of the census. The last redrawing occurred in 2020, but it's making an impact now as various cases wind their way through the courts.
The current Republican majority is a slim one, just five seats.
"The GOP majority is the only thing sanding in the way of a Democrat trifecta," Brent Keilen, the Family Research Council's vice president for strategic initiatives, said on Washington Watch Wednesday. "That makes the House that much more important."
Around a dozen states impacted by redistricting
In June, the Supreme Court said in a 5-4 vote that Alabama's GOP-drawn election map was illegal. The decision gives Alabama a second black-majority district among its seven districts. For many, it was considered a surprise ruling considering the High Court's recent decisions.
"There are about 10 to 12 states where this is happening. It's estimated this could potentially affect anywhere between 14 to 18 house seats, and that could sway the majority one way or the other," Keilen told show host Tony Perkins.
Among the other states impacted are Louisiana, Georgia, South Carolina and New York.
"The big state that we're watching is New York, where it's possible that Democrats could actually pick up six more seats, depending on how that the process plays out there.
"Then North Carolina on the other side, there have been some court rulings there where their redrawing of some lines could potentially pick up four additional GOP House seats. Then the other states have one or two potentially in play," Keilen described.
The redrawing of district lines could potentially change the strength of a slim House majority for either party.
"We do not have many swing districts," Keilen said. "On the one hand, that means a majority for one party; but it could be a bit more solid because it means even though the number isn't high, they're likely to retain it.
"That also makes these seats in the middle that much more important," he argued. "There are still swing seats. There just are not as many of them as we have seen historically when watching this sort of thing."
