It doesn’t take a sociologist to tell you a lot has changed in the United States over the past ten years. Having watched the capture of corporate America by LGBT, the stuffing of gay characters into all kinds of media by woke Hollywood, the celebration of drag queens in libraries, schools and churches, and the overall normalization of transgenderism, America has seen major cultural shifts since the Supreme Court’s 2015 Obergefell v. Hodges case.
But where exactly is public opinion on the issues of homosexuality and same-sex "marriage"?
LGBT demographic data
According to Gallup’s 2024 study, 7.6% of Americans currently identify as lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, or queer (LGBTQ). This figure is up from 5.6% identifying as such in 2020 and 3.5% identifying in 2012. Despite the sharp rise in the last four years, this is still a long way from the 10% figure that has been commonly accepted—despite being utterly wrong—for the past 30+ years.
The rise in identification is being driven by the younger generations—Gen Z, in particular—where it is estimated that 22.3% of Gen Z (born between 1997 and 2012) identify as LGBTQ. Millennials (born between 1981 and 1996) also show higher than national average rates of LGBTQ identification at 9.8%. Of these, the majority (57.3%) identify as bisexual rather than gay (18.1%) or lesbian (15.1%). 11.8% of LGBTQ adults identify as transgender, which is 0.1% of the national population. Also worth noting is that more women identify as LGBTQ than men.
When it comes to marriage, there are 127 million households in the United States (according to 2020 Census data). Of these, a total of 1.3 million are same-sex couples (0.9%) with over 740,000 currently in a same-sex marriage (0.5%). This means that only 10% of the LGBT population are in a same-sex marriage. 56% of all same-sex marriages are between women but lesbians are also twice as likely to divorce as gay men.
Same-sex marriage support: The major shift
Gallup’s 2024 Values & Beliefs Poll found that 69% of Americans currently support same-sex marriage. This is a massive shift from 55% support in 2014 and 40% support in 2008-2009. Only 27% of the population supported same-sex marriage in 1996. The year majority opposition flipped to majority support was 2011. In May of 2016, the summer after the Obergefell decision, support had already risen to 61%. Within the last three years, support appears to have peaked at 71% in 2022–2023 with the support rates now sitting at 69%.
Not surprisingly, there is a sharp difference in same-sex marriage support between Democrats and Republicans. Between 2014 and 2022, Democrats have increased support from 65% (in 2014) to 83% (in 2022). Republicans have likewise strongly increased their support from 35% to 49%. Younger Republicans express higher support levels, with 18- to 49-year-olds showing 52-53% support currently.
When support is examined by state, the states with the highest support were some of the earliest involved in the gay marriage debate—Massachusetts and Vermont both show 81% support. Washington state shows the highest support out west at 78%. Other notable states include New York (73%), New Jersey (76%), Illinois (74%), Connecticut (80%), California (68%) and Virginia (71%). The states showing the least support were Arkansas (49%), Mississippi (50%), Alabama (51%), South Carolina (52%), Nebraska and West Virginia (54%), and Oklahoma (55%).
When it comes to religious support for same-sex marriage, one research group observed that support “has consistently grown across virtually all demographics and affiliations, even within groups in which supporters are not the majority.” This was true of all religious groups represented in the United States between 2014 and 2022—with the one exception being Buddhists who somehow declined in support. Whether religious unaffiliated, Jewish, Muslim, Jehovah’s Witness, or Mormon, all groups showed a sizeable increase in support for same-sex marriage with Mormons having the largest growth (from 27% in 2014 to 50% in 2022). Jehovah’s Witnesses show the overall lowest level of support for same-sex marriage of any religious group (19% current support, up from 12% in 2014).
Among professing Christians, the most supportive have been Catholics and mainline Protestants, growing from around 60% support in 2014 to 75% in 2022. Support grew among black Protestants from 38% to 55%, among Hispanic Protestants from 35% to 43%, among other Protestants of color from 41% to 56%, and among white Evangelicals from 28% to 38%. While Evangelicals still show lower support than the other religious groups (except Jehovah’s Witness), the growth reveals underlying shifts in thinking regarding the morality of homosexuality—especially among younger Evangelicals.
Using some data from the National Survey of Family Growth, it has been observed that underlying the shift in support on same-sex marriage has been a more fundamental shift in how the morality of homosexuality is viewed. The study first began asking a question about whether participants see sexual relations between two adults of the same sex as “always wrong,” “almost always wrong,” “only sometimes wrong,” or “not wrong at all.” In 1973, 73% of the general population said it was “always wrong” with another 7% saying it was “almost always wrong.” Evangelicals had a higher percentage than the national average with 85% saying homosexual relations were always wrong.
When we move to 2018, only 66% of Evangelicals were willing to say that homosexual relations are always wrong. Even less, only 47% of Evangelicals between the ages of 18-29 years old are willing to say it is always wrong. The younger generation, once again, is leading the shift within the broader group. Furthermore, evangelical women tend to be more liberal on this issue than evangelical men by about 10 percentage points difference.
One last point to recognize is that the majority of Americans say they are committed to supporting same-sex marriage—regardless of whether Obergefell is ever challenged in the courts. This support has been said to rest around 67% of Americans. If accurate, an overturning of the Obergefell decision does not immediately mean a reversal of public sentiment. If such things are to happen, they may be slow and highly contested—similar to how the overturning of Roe v. Wade has incited an increased vehemence among the pro-choice contingent.
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