Israel didn’t end hostilities with everyone. It’s still going after Hamas, like Hezbollah, an Iran-funded terror group, and the one that set in motion the events that have occurred since it murdered, raped and kidnapped more than 1,200 Israeli citizens last Oct. 7.
The agreement establishes an end of fighting with Hezbollah for 60 days with the hope of continued de-escalation thereafter.
Celebratory gunshots could be heard in southern suburbs of Beirut as the news spread, The Associated Press reported.
An Israeli military spokesman, in an Arabic-language social media post, warned the people of southern Lebanon not to immediately return to their homes. Israeli forces remain deployed in the region and will act if Hezbollah does not uphold terms of the agreement, he wrote.
The ceasefire began Wednesday at 4 a.m., local time, hours after President Joe Biden took credit.
“Today, I have good news to report from the Middle East. I have spoken to the prime ministers of Lebanon and Israel, and I am pleased to announce: They have accepted the United States’ proposal to end the devastating conflict between Israel and Hezbollah,” he wrote on his official @POTUS X account.
Biden further sought to bolster a wobbly legacy early Wednesday and did so showing his disdain for lines of demarcation between nations, something that polls show led to the defeat of Democrats in the U.S.
“Yesterday’s ceasefire brings us closer to realizing a future I’ve been pushing for my entire presidency where the Middle East is at peace, prosperous and integrated across borders,” he wrote.
The U.S. will continue efforts to end fighting in Gaza have secure a release of hostages still held by Hamas, Biden said.
“I don't think Biden gets any credit for it at all, but I'm glad that Israel is taking time to rearm, rest their troops and get ready for the future,” Rep. Keith Self (R-Texas) said on Washington Watch Tuesday.
Israel has done what it wanted
Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has consistently balked at ceasefire calls from Biden and others.
The timing of the decision means Israel’s war goals concerning Hezbollah have been met, Self told show host Joseph Backholm.
“They have destroyed a lot of their leadership, and they've destroyed a huge percentage of the missiles that Hezbollah had. We used to hear that they had 150, 000 missiles targeted at Israel. Now I understand that they've destroyed a large percentage of that, so yes, I believe that you can make the case that in the short term, they have accomplished their mission,” Self said.
The ceasefire is great news for war-weary citizens on both sides of Israel’s northern border.
Whether it can be maintained by Lebanon is another thing.
“One of the things we need to keep an eye on is the Lebanese state. It’s very weak,” Eric Bordenkircher, a research fellow for the UCLA Center for Middle East Development, told Backholm. “It doesn't have the ability to basically enforce its laws throughout its territory. The most obvious example is the fact that Hezbollah does what it wants. It launched a war against Israel without the input, without the support of the Lebanese people.”
Bordenkircher doesn’t see a great chance for long-lasting peace between Israel and Hezbollah.
“I think we will witness further rounds of violence,” he said.
Peace in the region is a millennia-long problem, a goal undercut as Palestinian children are taught in their schools to hate Israel.
“Frankly, the children in all of the surrounding areas have been indoctrinated for so long to hate Jews, to hate Israel that this is what they faced in the future. How long will it last? I have no idea,” Self said.
It’s not in Israel’s interests to cling to an unstable agreement if provoked.
“Remember Hamas said, ‘if you leave us in place, we will do Oct. 7 time and time and time again. So, it’s a great question long-term, meaning years from now, five years, 10 years from now, I don't know because of the indoctrination of the children in these areas,” Self said.
‘Trump Effect’ in play
Clearer than the duration of the latest Middle East peace agreement is the reason it’s come about. It’s not Joe Biden. Self says it’s the Trump Effect.
The 45th president will be reinstalled as the 47th one on Jan. 20. Already his statements and pronouncements for future policy are creating reaction.
“Absolutely. We're seeing it around the world. Canada and Mexico responded within hours of his threat of tariffs. Hamas said, ‘We need to end this thing quickly, I think it was literally the day after the election results were known. So, absolutely I think that the Trump Effect … people are realizing that Trump is serious this time in reestablishing the credibility of the United States around the world. We've got world leaders flying in to visit with Trump. Absolutely, the Trump Effect is real,” Self said.
