An average of polls compiled by 270 to Win indicate four-term incumbent Senator John Cornyn (pictured above) is fighting for his political life, trailing Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton by three points heading into the March 3 primary.
Congressman Wesley Hunt is in third place, 10 points behind Cornyn.
Other polls, including the Emerson report, show Paxton and Cornyn are neck and neck.
Between the three, Cornyn is winning the fundraising race with supporters like the National Republican Senatorial Committee, which calls him the only Republican in the field "who reliably wins a general election matchup."
Cornyn also holds a significant advantage in spending by political action committees.
But Tom Pauken, who served on Ronald Reagan's White House staff and later became chairman of the Republican Party of Texas, thinks GOP voters in his state are "overwhelmingly … fed up with John Cornyn and would like to have a change."
"The sad thing is that Paxton has a lot of baggage in terms of his personal life," he continues. "This has caused many conservatives, particularly social conservatives, to look elsewhere."
Paxton was impeached by the Republican-controlled Texas House in 2023, accused of using his office to benefit a real estate developer and political donor. The developer allegedly helped Paxton conceal an extramarital affair and paid for renovations to his home.
Paxton was acquitted by the state Senate, but his personal life again generated headlines last year when his wife, Angela, filed for divorce "on biblical grounds."
If no candidate wins a majority in next week's primary, the top two vote-getters advance to a runoff. The GOP hopefuls are angling for a coveted endorsement from Trump, who has said he likes all three candidates and has yet to choose a favorite.
The choice, Pauken says, is "holding your nose and voting for Cornyn or trying to get Wes Hunt into a runoff," though he personally believes Paxton will be in the runoff.
"There's real concern that Paxton, because of his personal ethical problems, could lose in November, and that is the reason a lot of conservatives are actually going with Cornyn – just from the standpoint of making sure a Republican gets elected in November," Pauken notes.
On Jan. 31, a Texas Democrat defeated a Republican in a state Senate district that Trump carried by 17 points in 2024, but Democrats have not won statewide office in Texas in more than three decades and have never come within nine points of defeating Cornyn.
The party's Senate candidates in the primary are U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett and state Rep. James Talarico.
Though some polls show them within single-digit margins of the Republican nominees, it is considered unlikely that either of the Democrats will win the Senate seat in November.
