The traditional leverage point for the minority party still has key allies among Republicans as the government shutdown reaches record territory.
It’s been 36 days since Congress conducted business as Republicans, with a slim Senate majority, don’t have the votes to end the Democrats’ filibuster, a procedural tactic to delay or block a vote on Senate business.
The only way to end a filibuster is through cloture, a vote to limit further debate, but cloture requires 60 votes.
Republicans were seven votes shy of ending the filibuster earlier this week.
Republicans, however, can change the Senate rules with a simple 51-vote majority. This has been done in the not-too-distant past in modified terms in 2013 and 2017.
In 2013, Democrats by-passed the filibuster to vote on President Barack Obama’s executive and judicial nominees.
In 2017, Republicans did the same to confirm Neil Gorsuch to the Supreme Court.
“There are plenty of reasons to always protect the institution, but at the same time, we need to understand that people will use the rules against you, and that's what's happening right here. The old guard in the Senate still wants to protect that cloture vote in the institution,” Rep. Marlin Stutzman (R-Indiana) said on American Family Radio Wednesday.
The concern among many Republicans is the precedent set by bulldozing past the filibuster as the majority party.
Certainly, it would be remembered by Democrats the next time they’re the majority party in the Senate.
Finding the middle ground
It’s up to Majority Leader John Thune (R-South Dakota) to strike a balance between protecting Senate tradition and allowing Republicans to move ahead with their agenda.
Thune on Monday called the filibuster an “important tool” for Republicans last session when they were not in the majority and were able to “block a whole host of terrible Democrat policies” due to the 60-vote threshold.
President Donald Trump has been adamant, however, the Senate should move past the filibuster.
“THE DEMOCRATS HAVE GONE STONE COLD “CRAZY,” THE CHOICE IS CLEAR — INITIATE THE “NUCLEAR OPTION,” GET RID OF THE FILIBUSTER AND, MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!” he wrote on TruthSocial.com last week.
Trump “likes to be able to move on things at great speed, get those things done, check them off, and they're done. But I don't know who the president is four years from now,” Sen. James Lankford (R-Oklahoma) said on Washington Watch Tuesday.
Lankford told show host Tony Perkins that former President Joe Biden, had there been no filibuster, would have packed the Supreme Court with liberal justices and would have paved the way to statehood for Washington, D.C., and Puerto Rico adding four more Democrat senators and “preventing Republicans from ever having a majority” again.
“He would have advanced abortion unchecked. All these things he would have done, but we stopped him from doing all of those things because we still had a filibuster rule,” Lankford said.
It may be a non-issue if Thune is correct. He has estimated there is no more than 10 to 12 Republican senators who would vote to ban the filibuster.
It’s a move that would play into Democrats’ hands, Thune said. If Republicans “do their dirty work for them” the GOP would have to “own all the crap” the Democrats would do later.
The political context -- government shutdown, public backlash, midterm election concerns -- is increasing pressure on Republicans to show results — one rationale for Trump’s push.
Risk vs. Reward
But the risk calculation is high: Removing the filibuster could permit major legislative swings when Democrats regain power; for a party that sees itself as in the minority in future cycles, that is a deterrent.
So, the GOP is caught between a desire to act (and avoid blame for gridlock) and fear of changing a procedural safeguard that benefits them when out of power.
Weighty considerations indeed. Does reward outweigh risk? If Republicans pass legislation that benefits the American people, it does.
“I've always believed that politics always supersedes policy, but good policy will always supersede politics. That's why we need good policy to pass so we win in the political arena,” Stutzman told show host Jenna Ellis.
