That may not be the case in New York City where polling has long had Democrat-Socialist Zohran Mamdani way out in front.
But governors’ mansions are on the line in New Jersey and Virginia, and those races may not be the sure thing for Democrats that many have projected.
A new Emerson College poll shows New Jersey Democrat Mikie Sherrill ahead of Republican Jack Ciattarelli by 1%.
The race isn’t expected to be as close in Virginia between Democrat Abigail Spanberger and Republican Winsome Earle-Sears, the sitting lieutenant governor.
Likely voters favor Sherrill with 49% compared to 48% for Ciattarelli. Two percent remain undecided.
A businessman, Ciattarelli was a member of the state’s General Assembly from 2011-2018.
Sherrill is a U.S. House member representing New Jersey’s 11th district.
Kamala Harris carried New Jersey 52%-46.1% in 2024 in what was called a noteworthy swing toward Donald Trump in comparison to the 2020 election.
The Hispanic vote was a key part of Trump’s success.
He lost New Jersey by less than six percentage points in 2024, a surprisingly close result that came largely because of his remarkable strength in the state’s most diverse areas. Every single one of New Jersey’s 29 townships with a majority Hispanic population swung in Mr. Trump’s direction between 2020 and 2024 — by an average of 25 percentage points, The New York Times reports.
“Donald Trump lost New Jersey, for instance, by six points and right now Mikie Sherrill is only up three points in the Real Clear Politics aggregate, and then when you look at Virginia, Spanberger's up seven. So that's not as close of a race,” Mitchell said.
However, not all pollsters agree on the Virginia race.
“Some really good pollsters have them close. Trafalgar's got Spanberger up four, and Qantas Insights, also another honest pollster, has Spanberger up five,” Mitchell said.
Trafalgar shows Spanberger at 45.9% to Earle-Sears’ 41.8%, certainly within reach.
For Earle-Sears, the trouble is the Democrat has a wide lead among younger voters, as expected, and the Republicans haven’t been able to counter that gap among older voters where Earle-Sears’ lead is only 44.9-41.8.
Polling looks better for Republicans in New Jersey, but there should not be complacency based on Trump’s success in 2024, Mitchell said.
Don’t misread Trump success in 2024
“It’s not a Republican state, and everybody says, ‘Well, it's moving to the right,' and I think that really kind of doesn't capture exactly what's happening,” Mitchell said.
In Mitchell’s assessment, a large number of New Jersey voters were unhappy with the overreach of Joe Biden’s administration. That accounted for Trump’s success, and the Republican Party just happened to be there basking in the glow at the time.
“My polling has shown that I think people aren't really happy with the level of effort coming out of the Republican Party right now, and I don't know if the people in these special elections are going to necessarily be able to convert all that Trump support,” he said.
As is often the case on election night, the most-energized base could be the difference between winning and losing.
“It really comes down to what's turnout going to look like, right? Are these low-propensity voters that now vote for the Republican Party, are they going to turn out? I don't think we have enough elections to really know so I think there will be some surprises,” Mitchell said.
