After losing The Garden State's gubernatorial race to incumbent Phil Murphy (D) by three points four years ago, Republican Jack Ciattarelli is running for the office again.
This time his opponent is Congresswoman Mikie Sherrill (D), who is embroiled in a scandal that dates back to her time as a midshipman in the U.S. Naval Academy, when she failed to report that fellow cadets cheated on an exam.
The Hill points out that both candidates hope to defy historical trends. Ciattarelli must overcome what would normally be a challenging environment during an off-year election in a state Kamala Harris won by nearly six points in last year's presidential election. However, New Jerseyans have not voted for the same party three times in a row for governor since the early 1960s.
A Fox News survey released Tuesday, which was conducted by Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research, found Sherrill leading Ciattarelli 48% to 41% among registered voters.
Jeff Crouere, a political analyst and columnist, is encouraged by a recent Emerson College poll that has the race a "dead heat" because he figures that means Ciattarelli is actually a couple of points ahead.
"I think a lot of MAGA Trump supporters have historically been reluctant to tell pollsters who they're voting for," he suggests. "Look at the presidential race; Trump would always poll lower than what he actually achieved in the election, so, there is a disparity of a few points. I do think if it's tied in reality, the Republican is probably two points ahead."
He adds that Sherrill clearly has some baggage that Ciattarelli hopes will help him cross the finish line. In addition to the cheating scandal and the "antipathy" people have toward politicians, Crouere says people are wondering how she became so wealthy in Congress.
"The Republicans are trying to take advantage of all of this, and I think it's a minor thing," the columnist submits. "I think most people vote their pocketbooks. Most people vote for who's going to do better for them economically, and that's where I think Republicans have the edge because Democrats are not viewed favorably on the economy."
He believes it will all come down to which side gets the vote out.
In 2024, the incumbent party won each gubernatorial election, which left the nearly even partisan split of 27 Republicans and 23 Democrats unchanged.
New Jersey and Virginia hold elections in 2025; another 36 states follow in 2026.
