The U.S. and Israel have destroyed the navy and have claimed control of the skies above Iran. The Supreme Leader has been taken out – replaced over the weekend by his son Mojtaba Khamenei – along with other key regime personnel.
Though far fewer, there have been casualties for the U.S. and Israel, too, and Sunday in an interview with “60 Minutes,” War Sec. Pete Hegseth said more are expected.
“This doesn’t happen without casualties. There will be more casualties,” Hegseth said, adding that no one in the current generation “knows what it's like to see Americans come home in caskets, but that doesn't weaken us one bit. It stiffens our spine and our resolve to say this is a fight we will finish.”
Hegseth describes this as an overwhelming advantage for the U.S. and Israelis, yet whatever timeline the war might have will be made longer if Russia and China effectively supplement Iran’s meager war-making capabilities.
Russia and China have strongly condemned the U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran, calling them violations of international law and dangerous escalations, but have not provided direct military support.
Despite deepening strategic partnerships — such as Russia’s 2025 strategic treaty with Iran and China’s 25-year cooperation agreement — neither country has a mutual defense clause, meaning they are not obligated to intervene militarily.
That doesn’t mean they aren’t involved.
Russia has reportedly provided intelligence support to Iran, including satellite imagery and targeting data on U.S. military movements, according to U.S. intelligence sources.
China has provided key components: it supplies Iran with BeiDou satellite navigation, real-time intelligence via its satellite fleet, anti-stealth radar (YLC-8B) and is finalizing a deal for CM-302 supersonic missiles — capable of targeting aircraft carriers.
“These authoritarians have been, in recent years, increasingly interacting, working together, cooperating on military and economic and political issues as a way of trying to supplant the United States and undermine the U.S.-led world order,” Ilan Berman, of the American Foreign Policy Council, said on “Washington Watch.”
Everyone needs oil
As oil surges past the $100 a barrel mark, the impact is greater for China – which relies on Iran for 87% of its oil imports – than the U.S.
Another China source for oil was interrupted when the U.S. abducted Venezuela president Nicolas Maduro leading to increased sensitivity for China regarding Iran and the oil question.
By 2025, Chinese imports of Venezuelan crude averaged about 470,000 barrels per day, according to energy analytics firm Vortexa, with some reports citing figures as high as 600,000 barrels per day in late 2025.
China currently imports an average of 1.38 million barrels per day from Iran, according to energy analytics firm Kpler.
Gordon Chang, a China policy analyst, told show host Casey Harper, that China is keeping a hopeful eye on U.S. ammunition but that any dwindling of supplies will be off-set by the “exertion of will” of President Donald Trump which is acting as a deterrent.
Trump’s willingness to take on Maduro in Venezuela, now Iran and the political pressure he’s applying not only to Cuba but to China’s influence around the Panama Canal have the Chinese rethinking their place on the world stage, Chang said.
U.S. pressure on Panama intensified after Trump claimed China was “operating” the Panama Canal, calling it a national security threat. He refused to rule out military action to “take it back,” despite Panama’s sovereignty and denials from both Panamanian and Chinese officials that China controls the canal.
A key turning point came when Panama’s Supreme Court ruled in early 2026 that a contract allowing Hong Kong-based CK Hutchison, a company with close ties to China, to operate two major ports at either end of the canal was unconstitutional.
Not only are these U.S. moves impacting China’s thinking, but purges of military leadership by China President Xi Jinping have weakened his country’s forces, Chang said.
“This reassertion of American power, I think, has gotten people in Beijing to start to rethink that narrative that they were in control of the world. And that's a very good thing for us because now I think we can deter the Chinese, and I think that will carry over after President Trump's term as well,” Chang said.
As for Russia
The fall of Iran coming not long after the fall of Bashar al-Assad in Syria would leave Russia with few remaining close partners in the Middle East. It would also be a reputational blow if the Russians fail to defend an ally, which potential partners in the region could interpret as diminished military strength.
Then there’s Russia’s ongoing war with Ukraine.
“You see the Russians, at least in limited fashion, contributing to Iran’s defense. At the same time, all politics are local. The Russians have their hands full with their own conflict,” Berman said.
Russia and China each have reasons for not fully committing to Iran.
“Cooperation is going to be limited, but make no mistake, these are being coordinated,” Berman said.
