There have been bright spots, but it’s looking a bit wobbly with key objectives – notably the disarming of Hamas – yet to be reached, a regional analyst says.
As Vice President J.D. Vance visits Israel, Hamas shows no intentions of giving up its guns, killing Gazans it considers political opposition or, to the more fortunate, just beating them in the streets according to posts on multiple social media accounts.
Will the Israel-Hamas ceasefire hold?
“It's a good question, and I don't know if we know how to answer it just yet. Right now, I would say it is holding, but it is tenuous,” Jonathan Schanzer, executive director for The Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said on Washington Watch Wednesday.
The return of 20 living hostages taken during Hamas’ murderous rampage through southern Israel on Oct. 7, 2023 was celebrated by freedom-loving people.
Additional progress for the peace deal has slowed. Some also have concerns for the roles being played by Qatar and Turkey who have given money and other aid to Hamas.
The Qatar and Turkey questions
These aren’t recent developments. Both nations faced threats from the Barack Obama administration for their continued support of terrorist organizations.
From TownHall.com: “Since 2012, Qatar has provided at least $1.8 billion to Hamas, including $400 million to build two housing complexes, rehabilitate three main roads and create a prosthetic center, among other projects, a transformational infusion of cash at a time when foreign aid to the Palestinian territories has been in free fall."
That "material support" was, unsurprisingly, not going to rebuild Gaza infrastructure. Instead, the "reconstruction aid" was used to rebuild Hamas and fund further terrorism.
Turkey, under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has hosted senior Hamas leaders, has given millions in aid and has supported Hamas diplomatically.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has expressed concerns about Qatar and Turkey.
“Yeah, look, the Prime Minister is 100% right, and all of those expressing doubt about these two countries are fully justified,” Schanzer said.
For Qatar and Turkey, this isn’t only about Hamas. They’ve also been supporters of other terrorist organizations like The Muslim Brotherhood, Al-Qaeda, The Islamic State.
“These two countries are wolves in sheep’s clothing, and right now, they have a seat at the table in Gaza,” Schanzer said.
During a speech with Vance in Jerusalem this week, Netanyahu said security decisions would be made “jointly” but that he has very strong opinions.
Vance praised the progress of the peace deal and suggested a possible role for Turkey in an international stabilization force in Gaza.
However, tensions remain high between Israel and Turkey. It was Erdogan who vetoed the presence of Netanyahu at the Gaza Peace Summit in Egypt.
Erdogan made it clear he would not land his plane in Sharm el-Sheikh if Netanyahu attended, prompting his aircraft to circle above the Red Sea until confirmation came that Netanyahu would not participate.
During a speech with Vance, Netanyahu was less sure about a role for Turkey moving ahead.
“When it comes to Israel’s security, we do what we have to do. That’s always the case,” he said.
Can it all hold together?
The importance of the live hostages’ return can’t be overstated, but the optics are not good.
“We got the 20 live hostages back. That was a huge achievement for Donald Trump. I don't think anybody thought that it would happen. We've got roughly half of the slain hostages back. That's a huge achievement, but the question really, I think, is whether Hamas is going to continue to relinquish them because they amount to Hamas's leverage in this war with Israel,” Schanzer said.
And while Hamas has leverage, is there really peace?
“Can we get Hamas to simply lay down its arms, dismantle itself, and go quietly into the night? I think it is probably unrealistic to expect them to do this willingly,” Schanzer said. “For now, Donald Trump appears to be still rather sanguine about this, as are J.D. Vance and Marco Rubio, but I think the specifics about what comes next are still somewhat scant.”
