Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu -- shown above prior to a Wednesday meeting with U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth -- hope to finalize a ceasefire agreement that would reportedly see the terrorist group release 10 living hostages and the bodies of 18 dead hostages in five stages during a 60-day truce.
Former hostage Keith Siegel in April told New York’s WABC that 59 hostages remain held by Hamas, 24 of them alive.
As part of the agreement Israel would be compelled to release an unknown number of Palestinian prisoners and withdraw from parts of Gaza, where it now controls about two-thirds of the territory.
Bob Maginnis is president of Maginnis Strategies, LLC, and author of a dozen books including, "Preparing for World War III."
Set the bar low for expectations, he says.
"We have never been able to trust Hamas, much less the Arabs or the Persians for thousands of years. So, is this one going to work out? Probably not the way we want it to, but that doesn't mean that we don't try. We certainly try, but I don't think we're going to change Biblical history nor the nature of man. So, it's going to be something that you have to work at, do your best to enforce the provisions of it, but don't be too optimistic."
Success or failure of any agreement depends entirely upon Hamas, A.J. Nolte, director of the Institute for Israel Studies, said on Washington Watch Tuesday.
“The hostages are literally the only leverage Hamas has,” he told show host Tony Perkins.
Eventually, a lasting peace agreement must include the support of neighboring Arab states, Nolte said, and Qatar will have to play a big role.
“Qatar is key because they have been a major financial backer of Hamas, and now that Iran seems to be largely defanged, Qatar is probably Hamas's best hope for some sort of continuance.”
But Israel will have a very narrow definition of what a Hamas future looks like.
“Maybe there's some sort of deal where they're able to exile and have some resources in Qatar, but I don't think that Israel is going to agree to anything that involves a continuation of Hamas as an armed, organized presence in Gaza,” Nolte said.
There is growing interest from a number of Arabs in the Abraham Accords – a series of U.S.-brokered agreements during Trump’s first term – that seek to normalize relations between Israel and Arab and Muslim-majority countries.
United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco have signed on, and now Syria, Lebanon and Saudi Arabia have expressed interest. So have Palestinian religious leaders in Judea and Samara, a signal that many are resigned to the idea that Israel will always be around.
“It’s a very practical, very tribal move. The significance of it is that it breaks the front in the idea that Israel will one day go away, because if you have the sheikhs in Hebron that are trying to cut a deal with Israel, that means they're recognizing this is a permanent reality,” Nolte said.
Where do Gazans go?
Another important question in a ceasefire is what to do with the displaced people from Gaza. Maginnis paints a grim picture.
“Nobody wants them. Egyptians don't want them. Jordanians have too many of them and certainly the Saudis don't want them. Nobody wants this so-called post -Indian people. It’s a Catch 22. I don't see anybody wanting the Palestinians, so I don't know if they have a choice. They have to kind of take whoever will take them and right now nobody wants them."
