Most observers and analysts of the Middle East say the Iranian people themselves must be the impetus for any regime change. Bolton, the National Security Advisor for two years during Donald Trump’s first term, doesn’t disagree – but he says there’s a role the U.S. can and should play.
“As long as the current regime in Tehran stays in power there's really no chance for sustainable peace and security in the region,” Bolton said on Washington Watch Monday.
Islamic fundamentalists have controlled Iran since 1979. Regime change could bring improved human rights and individual freedoms, particularly for women. It also could bring nuclear de-escalation, better relations with Western democracies and the potential for economic trade and growth.
But there’s also the risk of instability and civil war, a power vacuum with no guarantees that a new regime would lead to better relations with the West and Israel. And there could be a humanitarian crisis with civil unrest, trails of refugees and loss of life.
“Even if we got a government in Iran that was peaceful and concerned only about their own internal affairs there would be other factors, other risks in the Middle East, but you don't even get to that problem until you solve the problem of Iran,” Bolton told show host Tony Perkins. “Conditions inside Iran today are very favorable for regime change.”
He sees a myriad of reasons for that, ranging from economically and socially to the regime’s oppression of its citizens and more. “The opposition inside and outside Iran among the Iranian diaspora really has the regime in a very difficult place,” Bolton said.
Perhaps the regime senses this as well … at least some in the regime.
Iran warming to talks since ‘Hammer’?
Since Operation Midnight Hammer – the U.S. bombing of three nuclear sites, including the deeply embedded mountain facilities at Fordow – the Iranians, having rejected further talks earlier, seem keen to return to negotiations.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has expressed eagerness to “resolve disputes with the U.S. based on international norms.”
“We hope that negotiations between Iran and the U.S. will begin soon and will lead to a positive outcome,” he said.
Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi seems slower to come around. “If our interests require a return to negotiations, we will consider it …. But at this stage, no agreement or promise has been made and no talks have taken place,” he said.
Adding to instability in Iran is its supreme leader, Ali Khamenei. Whatever comments may come from other leaders, it’s Khamenei who controls the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Since the U.S. bombing he’s been kept hidden in a secure location.
During the Israeli and U.S. strikes, repression of the Iranian people by the regime has increased with more than 700 arrests, several executions and heavy security deployments, especially in Kurdish regions, Reuters has reported.
Even ayatollahs don’t live forever, and Khamenei is 86.
Succession planning is under way with son Mojtaba Khamenei and grandson Hassan Khamenei as strong candidates. The son has stronger military connections. The grandson is seen as more moderate and with broader acceptance.
Bolton sees Iranian succession as “potentially very destabilizing.”
“I think we should try and help out. You know regime change is a bad word in many circles. In this case, it does not come anywhere close to meaning boots on the ground. I think we can provide support to the opposition and hope that it will be primarily an internal Iranian affair,” he said.
The U.S. can maintain pressure on Iran by seeing that sanctions remain in place, Bolton said. Trump had entertained the idea of lifting sanctions if Iran would abandon its nuclear ambitions. Such a move would help Iran recover from the airstrikes, the president said.
But Trump was offended by Khamenei’s assertions that Iran had won the war against Israel and that the U.S. had exaggerated claims of damage to Iran’s nuclear facilities. Now Trump says sanctions will remain.
“The regime of the ayatollahs right now is on its back, and we owe a lot of that to Israel for pummeling the terrorist surrogates, these radical extremists Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis,” Bolton said.
No help from Syria
Another interesting picture of regional dynamics is that the new Syrian government did not come to Iran’s aid against Israel, Bolton noted.
The Assad regime in Syria was an ally of Iran, and the new government, led by Ahmad al-Sharaa, has past ties to al-Qaeda and has not been a friend to Israel.
“The German chancellor [Friedrich Merz] said at the G7 meeting – this is sort of Washington gaffe of speaking the truth when you don't think anybody's listening – but he said the Israelis have been doing the dirty work of the West against the Iranian regime, this very radical Islamist state that threatens everybody in the region, Arab and Jew and Christian alike, … and threatens Europe as well as the U.S.,” Bolton said.
