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AFN spoke with two military veterans about the future of Iran's radical Islamic regime – will it receive help from its allies and continue its plan to destroy Israel? Or, as some suggest, will it surrender, opening the door for a "regime change"? Read more … |
But regime change is a delicate concept with two distinct outcomes – one that’s good for the United States and one that isn’t, Representative Pat Harrigan (R-North Carolina) said on Washington Watch Monday. The future can’t be about trying to plant a flag of democracy in a culture that has rejected it for centuries, he told show host Tony Perkins.
“The type that comes from an internal upwelling within a population that says 'we're done with these guys.' Obviously, that that would be fantastic,” said Harrigan, a former Army captain in special forces.
“But where we effectuate that regime change, if we have not learned anything from the last 25 years of the global war on terror, the couple of revolutions that we've sponsored, any of the interventions that we've had in the Middle East … it’s that forced regime change just does not work.”
Rapidly changing events early this week appear to have settled with the idea of Iran ready to talk about things – at least if a ceasefire announced Monday afternoon in the U.S. by President Donald Trump then shown wobbly with overnight attacks holds up.
Many analysts believe a negotiated settlement is the current Islamic government’s only chance at survival.
The key for Trump right now is to maintain a very narrow focus on clearly identified strategic objectives, Harrigan argued.
“President Trump has kept that in focus from the very first day that this kicked off, going all the way back to before when he gave Iran 60 days to come to the table and make a deal. And I expect that he'll continue to keep it in focus. He will absolutely put America first,” the GOP lawmaker said.
To date, there have been no organized opposition groups inside Iran, where the regime has violently oppressed dissent for decades. However, Reza Pahlavi is working hard to motivate such groups and individuals.
Son of Shah leading cheers for change
Pahlavi, the eldest son of Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, the last Shah of Iran, who was overthrown during the 1979 revolution, is a prominent opposition figure and advocate for secular democracy.
He’s been active on social media and has taken every opportunity to spread his message, leaving no doubt which type of regime change he favors.
“My fellow compatriots, we are now moving to the final phase of our struggle. It will be hard. But the regime is weak. It is near collapse. Only we, the Iranian people, can end it,” he wrote in an X post Tuesday morning. “Do not fear. Be bold. Victory is in our hands.”
Pahlavi went on to predict the ousting of the Islamic regime and to tell all levels of the IRGC to be mindful of their actions.
“To the military – as you’re given orders to lash out at the people – stand down. This is your final chance. You are being watched. We will remember who stood with the people and who committed crimes against them,” he wrote.
Pahlavi isn’t calling for Israel or the U.S. to lead regime change, but he’s calling on other foreign powers to back off as well. He has a stern warning of what the survival of the government will look like.
“To the world – do not save this corrupt, crumbling, terrorist regime. At this historic moment, stand with the Iranian people. Shield them from the regime’s desperate backlash. Do not prop up a regime that will, soon again, turn its guns, missiles, and terror toward you.”
As the regime falters, the battles have not been World War III but two-on-one. China and Russia, thought to be Iran’s allies, have been noticeably silent. Harrigan contends Iran’s feeble response to constant bombardment is a “five-alarm fire” for China and Russia.
“They are witnessing the strategic weakness of one of their greatest allies in the new axis of evil,” Harrigan said. “I mean, where were Russia and China when Iran needed them most? They weren’t there.”
The unwillingness of Russia and China to join the fight is telling about the alliance that exists opposite Israel and the U.S. “It is a fractured one. It is one that is regionally capable, but not globally capable,” Harrigan explained.
For Iranian people, the table is set
Whether the answer moving ahead means Pahlavi or someone else, for the Iranian people, the time to act is now. The consequences for failing to act will be dire, Scott Uehlinger, a former CIA officer, said on American Family Radio Tuesday.
“If they don't, they're looking at a brutal crackdown, much as the one that Saddam Hussein did on the Iraqis when the United States declared victory in 1991 in the first Gulf War,” Uehlinger told show host Jenna Ellis.
The Trump administration may not push Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, off the cliff, but it will gladly support internal opposition, Uehlinger predicts.
“He [Trump] would be warning the [Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps] not to obliterate the rising Iranian people, and I can also see him authorizing, potentially, U.S. airstrikes on targets of repression of the Iranian people, much as Israel has been doing already. And I certainly think that Israel would join in even faster than the United States in doing this,” he said.
Until such a moment, the U.S. is likely just monitoring events while conducting damage assessments from Saturday night’s bombing of three Iranian nuclear facilities, including the deeply buried Fordow site. U.S. officials have claimed the mission a success, but questions remain.
“The nuclear facilities, have they truly been destroyed? Has all the uranium been accounted for? Perhaps they already know that, know those answers to those questions, and it hasn't been released yet,” said Uehlinger.
Next steps include “watching what happens in Iran and if the people rise up, providing them a certain measure of support, at least preventing the regime from killing them on a large scale. That's what I think we'll be looking at in the next couple of weeks,” he concluded.
