Cornyn faces a challenge from MAGA favorite Ken Paxton, the state’s attorney general, and Rep. Wesley Hunt in a contest that's expected to advance to a May runoff between the top two vote-getters. The three Republicans have campaigned on their ties to Trump, who has not endorsed in the race.
Crockett and Talarico each argue that they are the stronger general election candidate in a state that backed Trump by almost 14 percentage points in 2024 and where a Democrat hasn’t won a statewide race in over 30 years.
Cornyn hopes to avoid becoming the first Republican senator in Texas history not to be renominated.
His cool relationship with Trump is part of why Cornyn is vulnerable. He and allied groups have spent $64 million in television advertising alone since July to try stabilize his support.
Paxton began campaigning in earnest only last month but has made national headlines for filing lawsuits against Democratic initiatives. He has remained popular in Texas despite a 2023 impeachment trial on corruption charges, of which he was acquitted, and accusations of marital infidelity by his wife.
Senate GOP leaders, who are backing Cornyn, worry that Paxton's liabilities would require the party to spend substantially to defend the seat if he is the nominee — money that could be better used elsewhere.
Paxton has run ads touting his support from Turning Point USA, the group founded by the late conservative activist Charlie Kirk, as well as Kirk's praise for Paxton before he was assassinated in September.
Hunt's entry into the race in October made it trickier for any primary candidate to win at least 50%, the threshold needed to avoid a May 26 runoff.
All three Republicans have run ads boasting of their coziness with Trump.
On the Democratic side, the party's first major contest of 2026 offers a choice between far-left candidates as it hungers for its first Senate win in Texas since 1988.
Talarico, a seminarian who attempts to use very liberal interpretations of the Bible to support his far-left political agenda, has held rallies across the state including in heavily Republican areas. Crockett, who has built a national profile for zinger attacks on Republicans, has focused on turning out black voters in the Dallas and Houston areas.
